Saturday the 14th Update: Bad Math Edition

I’m seeing several senior citizens on my Facebook timeline pass around this meme. It’s amazing: they’re the most at risk, and they’re also the people most convinced that this is all a hoax to make Trump look bad. It’s a great example of just how gaslit these folks have been over the past 5 years. Anyways, if you don’t know already, here’s why there’s so much concern about coronavirus as compared to H1N1: the stat that is left off of this meme (conveniently) is fatality rate. H1N1 had a fatality rate of 0.02%, which is extremely low (the regular flu is 0.01%). Estimates of Coronavirus’s fatality rate are somewhere between 1% and 3.5%, which is extremely high. Let’s take that conservatively: if 1% of the people who catch Coronavirus die, and 61 million people catch coronavirus, how many people will die? Not 12,000, but about 610,000. That’s scary enough, but you know what’s scarier? CV is FAR more contagious than H1N1. 61 million Americans catching it would be an extremely low number…predictions are that it will be closer to 150 million. If that’s the case, then we’re looking at 1.5 million deaths.

So here’s why we’re all currently on lockdown: not because of “the media manipulating your life”, but because if 50 million people catch it at the same time, our healthcare system will be destroyed. Thanks to the CDC botching rollout of tests, the 1,329 number is a joke. We’re probably closer to a million people with it than a thousand. Does that mean panic? No. Does it mean that sports leagues shutting down and cities shutting down is all part of some “media conspiracy to make Trump look bad”? That’s so insane I don’t even know how to react to it. The fact that things are shutting down isn’t part of some grand conspiracy. It’s part of an effort to prevent our country from completely melting down in the next 6 months. Posting this nonsense is not only reckless, it’s dangerous. Please stop.

Friday Update

Hard to believe that a week ago today I was getting on an airplane. Today I’m basically sequestering myself to my house, just to keep my social distancing. Things are moving so fast right now that I’m not sure that I can give you any clarity about what’s going on next week. What I will say is this: I think things are getting ready to change pretty dramatically in the entertainment field. Last night, my buddy and legendary guitarist Kenn Kweder went live on Facebook. It was nothing groundbreaking, he’s been videoing his shows live for awhile now. But I think it was a good window into where things are headed. He told people if they wanted to tip him they could, through venmo and Paypal. I won’t be at all surprised if this is how we do quizzes for the next couple of weeks. I am trying to learn the technology now…one of those things I should have been doing all along, really, but better late than never. Stay tuned. Hope to have some updates soon, and may be running an online quiz as soon as Saturday. I need to work on something fun to keep my mind occupied. In the meantime, I highly encourage you to read this and if at all possible WORK FROM HOME.

Thursday Update

Hey gang, just a quick update. As of now, we are still on for the Bards and Birra tonight. We are canceling the Pop a Shot Tourney on Sunday. We are postponing Bowlizzo until things become a bit more stable. There are no cancellations of quizzo for next week as of yet but I won’t be surprised if that changes. I think social distancing is going to be pretty big (and pretty important) over the next week.

I know this is scary for many of you. It is for me too. It is new and bizarre to have so many things shutting down at once. But keep in mind that it’s a good thing. By not having huge numbers of people congregate in small spaces, we are slowing the transmission of the virus. We are buying time for our health system to prepare for this. We are buying time for the extremely smart people working TIRELESSLY to get out ahead of this thing. Keep in mind also that those of us who are lucky enough to not have pre-exiting conditions or who are not elderly are almost certainly going to be fine, even if we catch it. This ain’t the Spanish flu, so even if you get it, don’t panic. But let’s also do our best to convince our older friends and relatives to stay home, no matter what.

After a really bad breakup, I had a buddy say to me: “You just gotta accept that things are going to suck for awhile. Don’t try to pretend that they’re better than they are, don’t try to trick yourself into thinking you’re having a great day when you’re not. You just have to accept that it’s going to suck.” I think we all need to do that. Let’s do our best to accept that it’s going to suck for awhile. But let’s also not give into panic, not give into fearmongering, and not drive ourselves crazy on twitter.

Bonus: I read this earlier today and thought it was terrific. Highly recommend it.

Some Notes About Coronavirus and Upcoming Events

This is my favorite time of the year: NCAA tournament, Opening Day, people hanging out in Rittenhouse. Instead, this year, it’s feeling more like a sci-fi film. The coronavirus has all of us worried (rightfully) for our parents, our jobs, our families. I just wanted to put out a quick note to discuss where things currently stand.

I had A LOT of events coming up this month, and I was really excited about them. Pop-a-Shot, Bowlizzo, a baseball event at Workhorse in a couple of weeks, our annual hoops brackets. As of now, they are all still on, and I will still be promoting them.

But the simple fact is that all of these events, as well as our weekly quizzes, could be postponed or cancelled at any point. Clearly, public health is far more important than any other consideration. I am not panicked, I think we’ll get through in this in the next few months. But in the meantime, I think we’ve got to keep an eye on the ball and know when discretion is the better part of valor. If the city asks us to shut down events where small groups of people gather, I’ll be the first to shut it down.

A few things I would ask that you guys think about in the meantime:

  • I’d encourage you to buy local whenever possible. Most local businesses depend on tourism for at least part of their income, and that’s about to dry up entirely, at least for this month.
  • And please help out our Chinatown friends, who have already been hit hard by dwindling business during this virus. Make it a point to order takeout or go to Chinatown this week.
  • Really, make it a point to order takeout from everywhere in the city. We’ve got a vibrant food and drink scene that’s going to get hit hard by this. Do what you can to help keep them afloat.

Be sure to check back here for updates…even if we do have to hunker down at some point, I’ll find a way to get you guys your trivia fix. Have a few “Just in Case” projects I’m working on now. Thanks for your patronage, stay safe, cover your damn mouth and nose when you sneeze, and hope to see you soon. Thanks-JGT

Back to Reality

Alright gang, been a crazy couple of weeks. After an incredible Quizzo Bowl, some fellow Philly peeps went out to Chicago this past weekend for Geek Bowl. I WILL have a full write up about Quizzo Bowl, complete with photos, done by the end of the week. I also took a bunch of video in Chicago for Geek Bowl and hope to put together something with that in the next week was well. We had a blast. In the meantime, we are back in action this week with our regularly scheduled programming, and have some exciting events on the horizon. Hope to see ya this week!